Accession Number:

AD0729035

Title:

On the Simple Stochastic Epidemic,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

PRINCETON UNIV N J DEPT OF STATISTICS

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1971-08-01

Pagination or Media Count:

13.0

Abstract:

In the mathematical model for the simple epidemic, it is assumed that the population at time t consists of Xt infectives and N-Xt susceptibles, and the Xt is a pure birth process with transition probabilities. There is quite an extensive literature devoted to the analysis of the process Xt. In this paper a valid asymptotic distribution theory for large values of N is developed and a simple efficient estimator of the infection rate lambda is derived. The author concluded with the analysis of a more general model for the simple epidemic in which the population is divided into a number of homogeneous groups. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Medicine and Medical Research
  • Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE