A Sensitivity Analysis of Urban Blast Fatality Calculations
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA PROGRAM ANALYSIS DIV
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The paper attempts to provide a basis for improving the analysis of strategic warfare by studying in detail the sensitivity of urban blast fatality calculations. It examines the effects of various assumptions on the resulting estimates of fatalities and attempts to uncover areas where errors are made. Two basic tools are used a computer program that computes survivors in a city under an optimized attack with a given number of weapons, and a quasi-analytical damage law--the Square Root Damage Law. The computer program is used to study such effects as sensitivity of fatalities to weapon yield, reliability, or target vulnerability and the Square Root Damage Law is used to correlate the results. A few metropolitan areas are studied in detail. Where possible a rationale is developed to explain the results obtained.
- Civil Defense
- Nuclear Warfare