Analysis of the Exploratory Development Project Evaluation Experiment.
CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIV CLEVELAND OHIO DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
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The paper contains a description of the methods used and results obtained in an exploratory development project evaluation experiment. The paper consists of five major sections. These are the introduction, the design of the experiment, the conduct of the experiment, analysis of the data obtained, and a summary of conclusions. The experiment is basically a modification of the DELPHI Method. Several rounds of judgments by a panel are used to obtain a consensus on factors, weights and project values. Results indicate that a small number of factors, obtained in a few rounds, are sufficient to derive a linear model which appears to yield unbiased estimates of project values. Author
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