The Use of Trajectories in Terminal Forecasting (Second Report).
AIR WEATHER SERVICE SCOTT AFB ILL
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Trajectory forecasting techniques have been introduced at 75 Air Weather Service forecast units. Trajectory data, in the form of parcel origins and forecast temperatures, dew points, and cloud amounts, are transmitted twice daily to these forecast units. These data are a by-product of the Air Force Global Weather Centrals AFGWC Multi-Level Cloud-Forecasting Model and are used to supplement conventional forecast tools. In addition, 600-meter above ground level temperature and dew-point forecasts from AFGWCs Boundary-Layer Model are included in the trajectory bulletin. Trajectory techniques have been integrated subjectively and objectively into forecast procedures with encouraging results. Ceiling and visibility forecasts prepared with trajectory data have verified better than forecasts prepared without trajectory data. This report discusses past evaluation programs, characteristics of the trajectory model, and procedures for using the data in forecast applications. Author