Accession Number:

AD0713174

Title:

HISTORICAL SIMULATION: A PROCEDURE FOR THE EVALUATION OF ESTIMATING PROCEDURES. VOLUME I. PROCEDURE DEVELOPMENT AND DESCRIPTION

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.

Corporate Author:

GENERAL RESEARCH CORP SANTA BARBARA CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1969-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

157.0

Abstract:

A recurring problem faced by many analysts is that of devising estimating procedures for predicting some aspect of the future from rather meager data. This is particularly true for the cost analyst who is concerned with estimating the resource requirements of future military systems. Historical Simulation is a method of evaluating candidate cost estimating procedures on the basis of their ability to simulate predictions using data that would have been available. In this fashion, Historical Simulation avoids relying on the central evaluation assumption of Regression Theory, namely, that which fits the past data best will predict the future best. This conceptual difference gives Historical Simulation several unique features.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE