PREDICTING CEILING AND VISIBILITY WITH BOOLEAN PREDICTORS
WEATHER BUREAU SILVER SPRING MD TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT LAB
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Predictors were developed for Seattle 3-hour ceiling and visibility prediction which were Boolean combinations of the simple weather elements observed at a network of stations. These Boolean predictors were intended to provide a more complete formulation of the conditions which precede specified categories of ceiling and visibility than was possible with the simple predictors used in previous experiments. Better definition of the antecedent conditions should lead to improved probability forecasts of terminal weather. A test of one set of Boolean predictors was completed, and the verification results were examined. The forecasts made with these predictors were not as good as forecasts based on simple predictors. For reasons discussed in the report, the results of this test should not be considered as final however, it does appear that the development and application of Boolean predictors of this type for a large number of terminals would be much more costly than the use of simple predictors.