A METHODOLOGY FOR COST FACTOR COMPARISON AND PREDICTION
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
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An improved technique is reported for analyzing the cost experience of weapon system procurements. Unlike earlier analyses, this one accounts for performance requirements, program duration, degree of technological advance, level of effort, earliness of estimates, and subsequent program changes, as well as the more usual ratio of estimated to actual costs cost factors. Fifteen weapons for which enough information was available were analyzed and the results were compared with 1950s aircraft and missile experience. Based on an assessment of the technological advance and length of time for development of a future system, the actual cost and range of uncertainty can be predicted using this mode.
- Economics and Cost Analysis