SIMPLE REGRESSION MODELS FOR ESTIMATING FUTURE ENLISTMENT AND REENLISTMENT IN ARMY MANPOWER PLANNING.
RESEARCH ANALYSIS CORP MCLEAN VA
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The paper explores several methods of projecting Army enlistments and reenlistments for manpower planning purposes. For the longer range, the correlation between no prior service enlistments and total annual accessions provides a good means of projecting the future enlistment pattern when accession requirements have been previously estimated. Similar monthly regression equations are shown to be appropriate for estimating monthly enlistments. An alternative method for monthly projection through use of an average rate is examined. The report discusses various Army planning scenarios e.g., draft vs no draft to illustrate when these methods may be appropriate. Finally a regression method for predicting annual first-term reenlistment rates based on previous years total manpower accessions is presented. Author
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations