Accession Number:

AD0706088

Title:

PREDICTIVE TECHNIQUES STUDY. PHASE I. COMPARISON OF SOME FORECAST METHODS.

Descriptive Note:

Operations analysis rept.,

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE LOGISTICS COMMAND WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO OPERATIONS ANALYSIS OFFICE

Personal Author(s):

• Lum,M. D.
• Blair,L. L.
• Stuart,J. R.

Report Date:

1970-05-01

Pagination or Media Count:

203.0

Abstract:

The report discusses the results of the research performed on Phase I of the Predictive Techniques Study. Phase I consisted of a short-term effort to obtain indications whether single or double exponential smoothing, double moving average, or moving least squares are more accurate than single moving average for forecasting. Phase I dealt only with computer generated artificial demand patterns thirty-nine runs were made on various demand patterns, and the alternative forecast methods evaluated for each run. A unique feature is that varying forecast lead times are taken into account short-term vs. medium-term vs. long-term. Other parameters being varied include the exponential smoothing constant alpha, mean demand, variance of demand random fluctuation, slope of trend when applicable. Author

Descriptors:

• *AIR FORCE LOGISTICS COMMAND
• *MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL
• *AIR FORCE EQUIPMENT
• *INVENTORY CONTROL
• *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION
• MAINTAINABILITY
• INVENTORY CONTROL
• LIFE EXPECTANCY(SERVICE LIFE)
• REPLACEMENT THEORY
• MILITARY REQUIREMENTS
• SPARE PARTS
• LEAD TIME
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Subject Categories:

• Administration and Management
• Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE