Accession Number:

AD0706055

Title:

INVESTIGATION OF THE SENSITIVITY OF A PATROLLING SUBMARINE'S CAPABILITY TO GAIN A DETECTION AS A FUNCTION OF INCREASING SURFACE SHIP SPEEDS.

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Report Date:

1969-10-01

Pagination or Media Count:

126.0

Abstract:

Numerical integration and Monte Carlo techniques are used in the development of several models in order to determine the effect on probability of random detection of a merchant ship using speeds up to 90 knots by a 10-knot submarine patrolling a back-and-forth barrier. A definite range law for detection is assumed. Individual encounter models are developed for ship tracks which are extended to include the assumption of a normal distribution of crossing points. Computer programs of the models, written in the FORTRAN IV language, are included. The results are applied in a numerical example. It is concluded that while increases in ship speeds do result in substantial decrease in probability of detection by a submarine in the case of a single barrier transit, a speed advantage alone when applied to a typical transit of the North Atlantic will not appreciably decrease the overall detection probability. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE