INVESTIGATION OF THE SENSITIVITY OF A PATROLLING SUBMARINE'S CAPABILITY TO GAIN A DETECTION AS A FUNCTION OF INCREASING SURFACE SHIP SPEEDS.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
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Numerical integration and Monte Carlo techniques are used in the development of several models in order to determine the effect on probability of random detection of a merchant ship using speeds up to 90 knots by a 10-knot submarine patrolling a back-and-forth barrier. A definite range law for detection is assumed. Individual encounter models are developed for ship tracks which are extended to include the assumption of a normal distribution of crossing points. Computer programs of the models, written in the FORTRAN IV language, are included. The results are applied in a numerical example. It is concluded that while increases in ship speeds do result in substantial decrease in probability of detection by a submarine in the case of a single barrier transit, a speed advantage alone when applied to a typical transit of the North Atlantic will not appreciably decrease the overall detection probability. Author
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics