METHODS FOR ESTIMATING PRESENT AND FUTURE INSURGENT STRENGTH.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
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An estimation of the extent of an insurgency appears to be a prerequisite for determining effective counterinsurgency policies. A method is developed to estimate a confidence interval for present insurgent strength based on consumption of a selected commodity. By examining the anticipated effects of dynamic counterinsurgency programs on additions and deletions to insurgent strength, estimates of future insurgent strength can be attempted. For this purpose, recursive relationships are developed describing changes in insurgent strength which occur with changes in level of a single government activity or multiple governmental activities. Author
- Unconventional Warfare