Accession Number:

AD0701375

Title:

EVALUATING PROBABILITY FORECASTS.

Descriptive Note:

Technical memo.,

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL OFFUTT AFB NEBR

Personal Author(s):

• Kennedy,James S.
• Epperson,Preston G.

Report Date:

1969-12-15

Pagination or Media Count:

13.0

Abstract:

The accuracy of an aggregate of probability forecasts involves two basic attributes which are called reliability and sharpness. By expanding the equation of the Brier-Allen Probability Score, consistent definitions of reliability and sharpness are derived in which the correlation coefficient between forecasts and outcomes has a key role. Presented is a graphic means of comparing aggregates of probability forecasts in terms of their reliability and sharpness. Author

Descriptors:

• (*WEATHER FORECASTING
• ACCURACY)
• PERFORMANCE(HUMAN)
• PROBABILITY

Subject Categories:

• Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE