REMARKS ON WARNING SYSTEM SPECIFICATIONS AND STRUCTURES
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DIV
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Several conceptual questions dealing with warning system structures are discussed, including techniques for correlating the outputs of multiple warning systems that compose a warning complex. The discussions are illustrated by a number of elementary analyses, dealing with warning probabilities, false- warning rates, and warning times. The mathematical calculations pertain to hypothetical automatic event detectors and automatic decision systems employing the outputs of such detectors. It is demonstrated that the use of multiple sensing elements in a warning system implies a need for proper association of redundantly detected signatures of real events and false signatures. The consequences of imperfect association are false-warning rates that can exceed by a considerable factor the rates that would be obtained assuming perfect association and when undesired warnings are generated in response to nonbelligerent activities.
- Antimissile Defense Systems