Accession Number:
AD0691239
Title:
AIDED HUMAN PROCESSING OF INCONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE IN DIAGNOSTIC SYSTEMS: A SUMMARY OF EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION.
Descriptive Note:
Final rept. 1 Oct 65-1 Jun 66,
Corporate Author:
OHIO STATE UNIV COLUMBUS HUMAN PERFORMANCE CENTER
Personal Author(s):
Report Date:
1969-05-01
Pagination or Media Count:
68.0
Abstract:
The report describes three experimental evaluations of a procedure for aiding men in combining probabilistic inconclusive information. The procedure is called Semi PIP Probabilistic Information Processing. In the semi PIP procedures, a computer relieves man of part of the task of combining probabilistic evidence. The experiments involved a simulated military threat-diagnosis task in which probabilistic data are used as a basis for deciding among alternative hypothesized threats. The Semi PIP was compared with an unaided procedure called POP Posterior Probability, and both procedures compared with a mathematically ideal combination of evidence Bayes theorem. It was found from the three experiments that 1 overall, the difference between Semi PIP and POP performance was very slight 2 POP was best when a small total amount of evidence accumulated very rapidly and, 3 Semi PIP was slightly, though consistently, superior when the total amount of evidence to be evaluated was large, when the total diagnostic impact in a set of evidence was large, or when both these conditions prevailed. Specific implications of the results for diagnostic system design and for research on basic human inference processes are summarized. A glossary of key terms from Bayesian decision theory is included in the report. Author
Descriptors:
Subject Categories:
- Psychology
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
- Human Factors Engineering and Man Machine Systems