Accession Number:

AD0689748

Title:

THE PREDICTION OF OPERATIONAL SUCCESS.

Descriptive Note:

Rept. for Sep 66-Dec 67,

Corporate Author:

AEROSPACE CORP EL SEGUNDO CALIF ENGINEERING SCIENCE OPERATIONS

Personal Author(s):

• Duroux,Joseph W.

Report Date:

1969-06-16

Pagination or Media Count:

41.0

Abstract:

A general procedure for obtaining a direct estimate of confidence in the success of a process is developed. The measure of confidence is an expected value of reliability based on a Bayesian a posteriori distribution. A flexible model of the a priori distribution permits the combination of a priori estimates with the results of either attribute success or failure, or variate measurement testing. A self-contained applications section summarizes the methods of computation. Author

Descriptors:

• (*RELIABILITY
• MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION)
• CONFIDENCE LIMITS
• PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS
• STATISTICAL TESTS
• SAMPLING
• ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
• ROCKET ENGINES

Subject Categories:

• Operations Research
• Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE