ESTABLISHING CONFIDENCE LIMITS ON DAMAGE ASSESSMENT ESTIMATES: AN EXAMINATION OF TWO MODELS.
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA SYSTEMS EVALUATION DIV
Pagination or Media Count:
Casualty prediction in the case of nuclear war, and the confidence limits which can be placed on estimates of civilian fatalities are considered. Attention is directed at the uncertainties in casualty prediction introduced by the less than a dozen parameters used in two specific damage assessment models, namely the BRISKFRISK and the QUICK COUNT models. The intent of the study is twofold first, to develop a general method for measuring the degree of confidence to be associated with a specified fatality estimate, given the damage assessment model and appropriate inputs and second, to demonstrate the method by example. Author
- Nuclear Warfare