THE ECONOMICS OF SOUNDING ROCKET UTILIZATION
Final rept. 1 Jun 1966-16 May 1969
THIOKOL CHEMICAL CORP OGDEN UT ASTRO-MET PLANT
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Analytical methods, that could be used to make scientific sounding rocket procurement and utilization more economically effective, are described. A Figure of Merit comparator, on which sounding rocket procurement and vehicle development decisions can be based, is proposed. The cost optimization of combinations of sounding rocket types for a user agencys vehicle inventory, selected on the basis of the Figure of Merit, is demonstrated. It is shown that optimum combinations of vehicle types can produce significant savings in the overall costs of a sounding rocket inventory. Techniques for predicting mission requirements are discussed, and one of these, polynomial extrapolations of actual utilization histories, is applied to historical utilization data from AFCRL and NASAGSFC. More sophisticated statistical prediction techniques are examined for their applicability to this problem. Bayesian decision theory is discussed in its potential application to inventory optimization. Method of estimating the cost effectiveness of a proposed sounding rocket vehicle development program are examined. Considerations of success criteria, projected mission requirements, and reliability growth, are included in the guidelines for the cost effectiveness evaluation.
- Economics and Cost Analysis