CLIMATIC NORMALS AS PREDICTORS. PART 4: VERIFICATION
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY STATE COLL NORTHRIDGE CA
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The length of the antecedent period for which the mean provides the minimum variance estimate of the next years temperature, rainfall, and number of rainy days is calculated for a U.S. climatological benchmark station, a variety of foreign stations, and for percent of possible sunshine at 9 U.S. stations. Results verify the findings reported previously, and found by other authors, that the optimum record length varies widely from element to element and month to month, but shows some regional consistency. For all elements, stations, and months combined, all antecedent periods 10 to 40 years long yield averages which, on the whole, are about equal in predictive accuracy.