IDEAS ON FEASIBILITY OF SEASONAL CLIMATIC FORECASTING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA.
Final rept. 1 Jan 68-31 Jan 69,
CALIFORNIA UNIV LOS ANGELES
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Sir Gilbert Walkers index of the Southern Oscillation shows interseasonal lag correlations with highest values in the northern autumn, indicating that a moderately successful forecasting of the SE Asia winter monsoon rainfall may be within reach. To Walkers discovery of a standing oscillation along the equator with a node at 165 degrees E can now be added a thermally direct Walker Circulation connecting the cool air of the eastern equatorial Pacific with the air over the warmer West Pacific and Indonesian waters. The intensity of the time-averaged Walker Circulation depends essentially on the amount of cold upwelling water brought to the surface during the last season of maximum Pacific equatorial easterlies southern hemisphere late winter, and the ocean-stored memory of this process accounts for the selective inter-seasonal persistence of tropical climatic anomalies discovered by Walker. Author