AN EVALUATION OF FORECASTS OF WIND, TEMPERATURE AND TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE OBTAINED BY NUMERICAL METHODS.
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER SUITLAND MD
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In Part I the methods of obtaining a wind forecast from the NMC primitive equation PE model are examined. A comparison is made of the skill of the PE model and of the three-level filtered model in forecasting winds and temperatures between 850 and 200 mb. It is found that the winds forecast by the horizontal equations of motion are superior to the geostrophic wind derived from the forecast height field of the PE model. The two numerical models are very nearly equal in wind forecasting skill. In Part II an examination is made of the relationships between the observed tropopause, the level of maximum wind and the operational tropopause analyses and forecasts prepared at NMC. It is found that both the analyzed and forecast tropopause pressure are useful approximations to the level of maximum wind. Author