THE USE OF TRAJECTORIES IN TERMINAL FORECASTING.
AIR WEATHER SERVICE SCOTT AFB ILL
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The Winter Trajectory Test Program was conducted as part of the AWS Forecaster Assistance Program. The objective of this test was to determine if three-dimensional trajectories derived from the output of the AFGWC Six-Level Forecast Model are useful in the preparation of terminal forecasts. Hq AWS personnel used trajectory data to evaluate forecasts prepared at detachments in the central and eastern United States and to modify some of these forecasts. These trajectory data improveed the four-month verification of the terminal forecasts by 3.1 percent. Tests were conducted in 1 Wea Wg and 2 Wea Wg and results from these overseas units are discussed. Forecast procedures and the application of objective rules developed during the winter evaluation are described in several case studies. Author