ON CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR THE PERFORMANCE OF A SYSTEM WHEN FEW FAILURES ARE ENCOUNTERED
BOEING SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH LABS SEATTLE WA MATHEMATICS RESEARCH LAB
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In some situations encountered today the components are so reliable that no failures are observed within the time available for testing. This can pose a problem in data analysis and interpretation. Consideration is given to the problem of determining lower confidence bounds on the reliability of a complex system, such as the Saturn 1-C, when each component is assumed to have an exponential life and different components have different multiplicities within the system. We discuss and compare the confidence limits obtainable from various interpretations of the data and several theories such as asymptotic likelihood ratio, asymptotic maximum likelihood, the Bayesian method and the new method presented here utilizing the conditional probabilities of malfunction of the components given that a malfunction in the system has occurred.
- Statistics and Probability
- Operations Research
- Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems