A STATISTICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING THE MAGNITUDE AND SCOPE OF NUCLEAR ATTACKS
STANFORD RESEARCH INST MENLO PARK CA
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This research develops concepts, flow diagrams, and statistical methodology for an information system to estimate the magnitude and scope of nuclear attacks. The system is designed to operate in the transattack and immediate postattack periods when data on the attack can be expected to be incomplete and inaccurate. The underlying principle in estimating attack size is that of statistical inference, which permits an estimate to be made of the total attack from information on a sample of the attack only. Heuristic decision rules are applied as needed to make the system operable. It is demonstrated how the target synthesis procedure thus developed may be coupled to a variety of survival estimating techniques to yield survival estimates. The research also develops statistical methodology for processing reports of nuclear detonations.
- Civil Defense
- Nuclear Warfare