Accession Number:

AD0668107

Title:

EXPERIMENTS IN GROUP PREDICTION,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1968-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

14.0

Abstract:

The usual way of using a group for the formulation of opinion is by way of face-to-face discussion in a committee, commission, or panel. A large number of recent investigations by social psychologists have demonstrated that face-to-face discussion has serious drawbacks. Chief among these are influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure toward conformity. To ameliorate some of these difficulties, a procedure called Delphi has been developed at RAND. This procedure has three basic features 1 Anonymity 2 controlled feedback and 3 statistical group response. The results of these exercises are briefly summarized as follows 1 In almost all cases, there is a pronounced convergence of opinion with iteration 2 the principle decrease is between the first and second rounds and 3 most significant, for those cases where the accuracy of responses can be checked, the accuracy of the group response increases with iteration. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE