SOME COMMENTS ON THE PROBLEM OF SELF-AFFECTING PREDICTIONS
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA SANTA MONICA
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One of the most interesting questions for the study of long-range prediction is that of whether predictions of the future are in effect manipulations of it, and if so, whether this fact affects the validity of the predictive process. This paper attempts to analyze and clarify the possible interaction of prediction and event. The author considers the problem of the interaction between the making of social predictions and the events about which the predictions are made, and poses the following questions 1 Is the interaction of prediction and event predictable 2 Can the interaction of prediction and event be controlled 3 How and to what extent should people making predictions try to take into account the possible effects of their predictions 4 Is the entire phenomenon of self-affecting predictions of any practical use. An attempt is made to devise a conceptual andor computational model for the interaction of predictions and events. A flow chart is proposed as a possible conceptual framework for the problem, and other analytical methods are suggested for modeling some types of prediction-event interaction.
- Sociology and Law
- Statistics and Probability