UNCERTAINTY IN LAUNCH VEHICLE COST ESTIMATING EL SEGUNDO TECHNICAL OPERATIONS.
AEROSPACE CORP EL SEGUNDO CALIF EL SEGUNDO TECHNICAL OPERATIONS
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The report presents preliminary results of a study of the uncertainty in estimating future Air Force launch vehicle program costs. This study is part of a larger project to develop a launch vehicle program cost estimating model for the Space Systems Division of the Air Force Systems Command. This model, as well as the uncertainty analysis, is being prepared in support of long range planning and is not directed toward cost estimating problems associated with contract pricing and negotiations. The results of the analysis consist of the first of a two-phase statistical experiment concerning the confidence region associated with the variation of cost estimates derived by using industry cost models. This first phase examines hand-calculated estimates using cost estimating relationships published by industry and others. The second phase, to be reported on later, will deal with industry-computed estimates based on their own computer cost models. Statistical analyses were made of the mean and standard errors of a small sample of hand-computed estimates for total program and subsystem costs for a liquid and a solid fueled launch vehicle. Some tentative inferences are drawn concerning possible causes of the variations of estimates. The sample standard deviations calculated ranged from 7 to 40 percent of the corresponding mean values. Author
- Administration and Management
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Unmanned Spacecraft