Accession Number:

AD0657168

Title:

A HEURISTIC COMPROMISE BETWEEN PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS AND LIMITED RESOURCES

Descriptive Note:

Research paper

Corporate Author:

INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING SUPPORT DIV

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1967-08-01

Pagination or Media Count:

47.0

Abstract:

This paper proposes an analytical technique for modeling by the analyst of a particular decision situation. Evidence supporting the basic proposal, properties of the technique, discussions of its possible applications, and examples are also presented. The basic problem is a compromise between the probability of success in a single trial versus the total expected number of successes over many trials under the constraint of a limited and uncertain resource. The analogous situation of choosing an operating point for a system which is a compromise between the effectiveness of the system and its efficiency effectiveness divided by cost is also discussed.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE