A HEURISTIC COMPROMISE BETWEEN PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS AND LIMITED RESOURCES
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING SUPPORT DIV
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This paper proposes an analytical technique for modeling by the analyst of a particular decision situation. Evidence supporting the basic proposal, properties of the technique, discussions of its possible applications, and examples are also presented. The basic problem is a compromise between the probability of success in a single trial versus the total expected number of successes over many trials under the constraint of a limited and uncertain resource. The analogous situation of choosing an operating point for a system which is a compromise between the effectiveness of the system and its efficiency effectiveness divided by cost is also discussed.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Operations Research