THE ROLE OF PLAUSIBLE REASONING WITHIN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE: AN APPLICATION OF BAYES THEOREM AS A MODEL FOR PROBLEM SOLVING,
HRB-SINGER INC STATE COLLEGE PA
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The military intelligence analyst must cope with uncertainty during his problem-solving efforts. This uncertainty maps directly through the analysis and synthesis processes and affects his confidence in the output. A formal methodology for analysis can reduce some of these unfavorable effects while augmenting the analysis problem solving capabilities. The role of plausible forms of logical reasoning within intelligence analysis is reviewed, followed with the introduction of Bayes Theorem as a model for intelligence analysis. The conjecture is made that Bayes Theorem can also serve as the nucleus of a formal methodology. The application of Bayes Theorem to several types of problems is demonstrated. However, the implementation of such a model as the nucleus of a complete analysis methodology is hindered by several significant problems. Some of the prime hindering aspects are delineated and discussed.
- Operations Research