SOME CONSIDERATIONS IN CHOOSING AN OPTIMUM FORECAST METHOD FOR VARIOUS LENGTH AND TIME SCALES OF CLOUDINESS.
WEATHER WING (3RD) OFFUTT AFB NEBR
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The report describes a method of analysis and prognosis which is applicable to cloud forecasting in general. All forecast methods are concerned to some degree with three steps 1 Collection and organization of an initial data base - this involves data reliability and resolution of the grid or other format. 2 Forecast technique - the equations used for projecting the initial conditions into the future. These equations can range all the way from persistence to a complete physical solution of the problem. 3 Interpretation and display of the results to the customer. This step is concerned with the resolution of the display system and also the interpretation of the results into amount of cloud. The final products resolution and accuracy is dependent on these three steps, acting as filters. This report examines the length - time scale dictates of the atmosphere the choice of forecast system best suited for a particular job, and finally that stages 1 and 3, above, have a compatible resolution.