Accession Number:

AD0651108

Title:

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE DATA-GENERATING MODEL IN PROBABILITY ESTIMATION,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1967-04-01

Pagination or Media Count:

15.0

Abstract:

When subjects appear to do poorly in a complex probability estimation task, they may be making careful estimates based on a different data-generating model than the one used by the experimenters. Eleven subjects estimated for 150 trials the probability that a dropped bomb had been aimed at one of two cities. Correlations between subjects estimates and probabilities generated by the correct, circular normal model and by a simple, incorrect ratio of distances model showed six subjects using the wrong model with great accuracy. The usual analysis of such data, in which a possible confusion about the data-generation model is disregarded, would have led to the misleading conclusion that these subjects were very inaccurate at the task. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE