SOME COMPONENTS OF PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE.
MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR HUMAN PERFORMANCE CENTER
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In most studies of probabilistic inference, subjects have behaved conservatively, i.e., they have revised their probability estimates less than the amount prescribed by Bayess theorem. This study attempts to shed further light on the conservatism effect by analyzing the process of inductive inference into two components, and determining the effects on conservatism of these two components. One component is deduction determining the probabilistic relationships between the datum observed and the hypotheses being considered. The second component is combination of the data combining the effects of individual items of data in order to make an inference based on all the data observed.
- Statistics and Probability