Accession Number:

AD0647870

Title:

AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE DELPHI PROCEDURE FOR LONG-RANGE FORECASTING. PART I,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE OFFICE OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH ARLINGTON VA

Personal Author(s):

• Martino,Joseph

Report Date:

1967-02-01

Pagination or Media Count:

21.0

Abstract:

Long-range planning requires the use of a forecast, either implicit or explicit. The Delphi Procedure is one method for obtaining an explicit forecast. The experiment was conducted to determine the problems and difficulties associated with use of the Delphi Procedure. It was concluded that the procedure is workable and does not call for undue effort to carry out. Information on manhours required, delays involved, and degree of change of opinion during the course of the Procedure is given. Author

Descriptors:

• (*MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL
• DECISION MAKING)
• (*DECISION MAKING
• QUESTIONNAIRES)
• PREDICTIONS
• PUBLIC OPINION
• PROBABILITY

Subject Categories:

• Administration and Management
• Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE