A STUDY OF THE DEMOGRAPHY OF NUCLEAR WAR. APPENDIX I: EMPIRICAL GUIDELINES FOR THE SELECTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES AND AREAL UNITS FOR STUDYING POSTATTACK SOCIETY,
HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH INC MCLEAN VA
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The basic problem with which this report is concerned is that of determining the kinds of demographic change that might result from a range of nuclear attacks, ascertaining the effects of those changes on the future of the surviving populations, and indicating possible areas for Civil Defense action and planning. Earlier studies of the demography of nuclear war were examined and their relevant conclusions and methodology incorporated in the report. A different methodology--expected to be more sensitive to compositional effects--was then designed. The new methodology was tested and found to be more effective than the old. Surviving populations representing a wide range of variation in attack conditions were created on the basis of both old and new methodologies, and the demographic significance of these populations was examined. Assuming a range of post-attack demographic conditions, a series of projections was made on the surviving populations. The demographic significance of the recovering populations was then examined. On the basis of the analysis a series of recommendations relevant to Civil Defense planning was made Within the framework of this analysis the crucial variable is the demographic pattern of the city. Changes in composition, as well as size, could be of substantial magnitude and would last for generations in some cases. Cities differ in the kinds and magnitudes of change to which they might be subjected. Considerable variation in the demography of surviving populations can be expected that variation would be related to policy decisions and those decisions should therefore be examined for their demographic implications.
- Sociology and Law
- Nuclear Warfare