METHODOLOGY FOR POSTATTACK RESEARCH.
HUDSON INST INC HARMON-ON-HUDSON N Y
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The report discusses the methodology of postattack research. A hierarchical approach is described, in which the objects of analysis range from simple orgnaisms and artifacts to complex human societies and ecosystems. The notion of response to a perturbation which is appropriate for simple systems is extended to encompass the wider notion of disutility in describing the effects of a nuclear attack on the economy or the society of the nation as a whole. The appropriate uses of devices such as scenarios, games, case histories, metaphors and models for various purposes is discussed. The major point is that non-rigorous constructs may be extremely helpful in training, raising the level of the discussion, and generating insights, but cannot be used for predictive purposes as models can. A state-of-the-art estimate of various models is included. Author
- Civil Defense