THE EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN SELECTIVE SERVICE.
STANFORD UNIV CALIF INST FOR MATHEMATICAL STUDIES IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
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The rules by which individuals are chosen for induction into military service by the Selective Service System are such that individuals are uncertain about whether they will be called. This draft uncertainty is costly to the individual who, if he has to serve, would pfu8 to serve aa 2ower rather than a higher age. His control variable in this problem of decision under uncertainty is the age at which he voluntarily enters service if not deferred from induction. The situation is represented as a continuous non-stationary Markoff process, and qualitative characteristics of an optimal policy are examined. The real costs in foregone productyo4 08ysy4w f8om drft uncertainty 08u described, and it is argued that a suitably designed littery selection system could mitigate all draft uncertainty costs. Author
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations