HIT PROBABILITY ON A TANK TYPE TARGET.
FRANKFORD ARSENAL PHILADELPHIA PA FIRE CONTROL ENGINEERING DIRECTORATE
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A mathematical model was developed that may be used to determine salvo hit probability as a function of the number of rounds in the salvo, target size, aim error and round to round variation dispersion. The report indicates graphically the value of dispersion that maximizes the salvo hit probability on a tank type target for a given number of rounds and a given aim error. The conclusions indicate that the dispersion should be approximately equal to the bias in order to maximize the salvo hit probability on a tank type target 7-12 ft. x 7-12 ft.. Although the model was developed based on the salvo assumption, it does serve to provide a measure of the effectiveness of high rate of fire weapons, where the relationship between bias and dispersion may approach that of a salvo. The salvo assumption, i.e. that the aim error bias is considered constant during the firing interval and round to round dispersion may be superimposed upon this bias, leads to hit probabilities less than those obtained by the independence of rounds assumption generally employed for calculation of low rate of fire weapons. For high rate of fire weapons, actual hit probabilities would be expected to fall somewhere between the two solutions depending on the degree of round to round correlation existing in the fire control system. Author
- Fire Control and Bombing Systems