INFERENCES ON THE BASIS OF CONDITIONALLY NONINDEPENDENT DATA.
OHIO STATE UNIV RESEARCH FOUNDATION COLUMBUS LAB OF AVIATION PSYCHOLOGY
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The experiment was concerned with decision making in a tactical threat situation simulated. More specifically, it was concerned with the ability of subjects to estimate the likelihood of hypotheses concerning the adversarys intentions being true. The data, presented to the subjects concerning the enemy, were internally interrelated in a probabilistic sense. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the subjects ability to exploit these interrelationships in making their estimates concerning the probable intentions of the enemy. The subjects likelihood estimates as to the enemys intent were compared with those computed using Bayes theorem--a mathematical technique that, theoretically, makes maximum use of the data, their interrelationships and their relation to the hypotheses. In general, the estimates made by well-trained subjects agreed closely with those calculated from Bayes theorem. The subjects apparently were able to exploit the probabilistic interrelationships in the data. Furthermore, the subjects estimates reflected neither the conservatism nor the recklessness suggested by other previous experiments. Author