PSYCHOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS BASED ON BAYESIAN PROBABILITIES.
PITTSBURGH UNIV PA GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
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Bayesian analysis was applied to personnel predictions in comparison to traditional regression procedures. The main advantage the Bayesian approach has over regression techniques is freedom from the homogeneity-of-variance requirement. It was seen that when the assumption of homogeneous variance is violated, the Bayesian method yields more accurate predictions than the regression method. When the assumption is tenable, the Bayesian and regression approaches yield the same results. Along with algebraic and empirical analyses, computer simulation was used to contrast Bayesian and regression predictions of dichotomous budgeting decisions from scores on intelligence tests and inventories of orientation and personal values. Author
- Statistics and Probability