RESEARCH ON TROPICAL RAINFALL PATTERNS AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE SYSTEMS.
Quarterly progress rept. no. 10, 1 Aug-31 Dec 65,
TEXAS A AND M UNIV COLLEGE STATION DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
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The contingency index is used as a tool to show the differences of rainfall and the terrain in Costa Rica. The differences, even with small orographic influences, can be noted. The unusually heavy rain occurring in Panams during 1935 is identified as to period and region. Standard mathematical analytical procedures show that some regions received amounts which may be classified as one in a thousand or one in ten thousand probabilities. The synoptic data pertinent to this period are, unfortunately, not available. The seasonal distribution of precipitation in Honduras is illustrated by means of percentage changes in the monthly rainfall. The general inference from these maps is that changes begin in the south of the country but a few months are characterized by disturbances originating in the north. The daily rainfall observations from San Salvador, El Salvador are examined for independence to determine if they may be approximated by a Markov chain probability model. A tabulation of the marginal and conditional probabilities based on a first order Markov chain are presented and examples are given showing how the probability of occurrence for any sequence of wet andor dry days may be calculated. Author