EVALUATION OF CONTRACTOR'S PERT-TIME ESTIMATING ABILITY.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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Contractor estimates of activity duration times from a PERT Program Management Network are examined to determine if a trend exists when compared to reporting periods for estimates made prior to and during activities, and if the trend shows an improvement as activity start and completion dates are approached. Only critical activities leading to a major contractual milestone were selected and all network changes eliminated. Regression analysis was applied and revealed that a trend could not be formed for estimates made prior to activity start. The estimates were also compared to the actual duration times to determine if an adjustment could be derived. Regression analysis was again applied and estimating equations computed for each category. The estimating relationships show that adjustments to estimates are possible and further show that the duration times are underestimated a greater percentage of the time.
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