Accession Number:

AD0625223

Title:

TIMELINESS AND ACCURACY IN A SEQUENTIAL DECISION MAKING TASK.

Descriptive Note:

Technical research note,

Corporate Author:

ARMY PERSONNEL RESEARCH OFFICE WASHINGTON D C

Personal Author(s):

• Hammer,Charles H.

Report Date:

1965-10-01

Pagination or Media Count:

34.0

Abstract:

One objective of the COMMAND SYSTEMS Task is to provide research information by which decision making and information assimilation from displays may be facilitated. The present publication reports on an experiment conducted to investigate the amount of intelligence information which decision makers judge sufficient for action and to relate these judgments to the accuracy and timeliness of the decisions made. In a series of simulated military situations involving threat evaluation, three practice problems and nine experimental problems were generated. Slides showing 4, 6, or 8 successive aggressor force moves toward three friendly units were shown to 60 enlisted men each of whom was required to give an interim judgment as well as a final decision as to enemy attack intent. Analysis of results showed large individual differences in judgments of confidence and sufficiency. Tendency to judge information insufficient for taking action was significantly greater when lesser amounts of information were provided. For final decisions, as more information was provided, accuracy of performance increased from 46 to 81 and judgments of confidence increased from 52 to 68. Findings strongly suggest that along with techniques to enhance the accuracy of decisions, effective techniques are needed to enhance confidence in those decisions therby increasing timeliness with which accurate decisions are reached. Author

Descriptors:

• SEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS
• DECISION THEORY
• PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS
• PERFORMANCE(HUMAN)

Subject Categories:

• Personnel Management and Labor Relations
• Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE