CIRCULATION-CLOUD PROGNOSTIC RELATIONSHIPS: SUMMER AND FALL.
Final rept. for 1 Oct 64-31 Jul 65,
UNITED AIRCRAFT CORP EAST HARTFORD CONN
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Regression Estimation of Event Probabilities REEP equations were derived from summer and fall data samples to diagnose cloud amounts from circulation and moisture prognoses. Equations were derived for total-, low-, middle-, and high-cloud amounts, and for the time change of total-cloud amount. Sets of equations were derived for 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-hr forecast intervals. In deriving the equations, persistence and moisture content were found to be the most significant predictors. Of lesser significance were temperature and circulation features 500-mb height, thickness, and vertical velocity. When tested on independent data, the REEP equations gave better results than persistence for each cloud amount category and for each forecast interval . Author