AN ANALYSIS OF NUMERICAL CLOUD FORECASTS. A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TOTAL CLOUD COVER FORECASTS PRODUCED BY TWO AIR WEATHER SERVICE NUMERICAL PROGRAMS.
SAINT LOUIS UNIV MO
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The Air Weather Service, USAF, has a requirement to provide total cloud cover forecasts for the northern hemisphere. Three approaches were made to provide numerical forecasting programs to meet this requirement 1 A Dynamic Cloud Forecasting Model based upon forecasting the trajectories of air parcels 2 A 4-layer Cloud Forecasting Model based upon the forecasting of adiabatic vertical velocities and a statistical correlation between cloud cover and the forecast dewpoint depression and 3 a Multiple-discriminant Analysis program developed by applying statistical techniques to determine a minimum number of predictors which would most efficiently forecast total cloud cover by statistical methods.