PREDICTION IN THE STRATOSPHERE
Final rept. for Oct 1964-Apr 1965
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP HARTFORD CT
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The report describes a base technique for the 24- and 48-hr prediction of stratospheric contour height changes in winter at 100, 50, and 30 mb. On independent data, this technique yields superior results to persistence at all three levels and for both forecast intervals. Prediction equations are derived by applying the screening regression technique to atmospheric variables at a network of grid points surrounding a predicand point. Incorporation of predictors, based on perfect prognoses at lower levels, brings about a significant improvement in the results. Some improvement is also noted when a geographical stratification is employed. However, orientation of the grid network with the flow pattern did not result in any substantial improvement.
- Atmospheric Physics