Accession Number:

AD0614684

Title:

ESTIMATION OF CONTINUOUS SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN A SEQUENTIAL DECISION TASK,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

NORTH CAROLINA UNIV CHAPEL HILL PSYCHOMETRIC LAB

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1964-10-01

Pagination or Media Count:

26.0

Abstract:

A range betting method RBM for measuring continuous subjective probability distributions is presented. Predictions derived from the method are tested in a computer-controlled sequential decision making task. In particular, twenty-two undergraduate students participated individually in the task. The subjects were asked occasionally ao place a wager upon the range of an unknown value of P, 0 P 1, generated by an LGP-30 computer. In addition, the subjects predicted the exact value of P by typing a number on a Flexowriter, and then estimated the value of P after obtaining information about its value. The information was given in the form of n values 1 n 20 of 0s or 1s generated by a binomial distribution with mean P and printed on the Flexowriter in front of the subject. Predicted decisions were derived both from the RBM method and from a relatively simple confidence limits model. The subjects estimates of the range boundaries were compared to the predicted values from both models. In both comparisons the results indicated a regression effect and a block-to-block tracking behavior. Attempts to compare two independent measures of the same subjective probability distribution were unsuccessful. Author

Subject Categories:

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE