Accession Number:

AD0607777

Title:

REPORT ON A LONG-RANGE FORECASTING STUDY

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report

Corporate Author:

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA SANTA MONICA United States

Personal Author(s):

• Gordon,T. J.
• Helmer,Olaf

Report Date:

1964-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

131.0

Abstract:

This report describes an experimental trend-predicting exercise covering a period extending as far as fifty years into the future. The experiment used a sequence of questionnaires to elicit predictions from individual experts in six broad areas scientific breakthroughs, population growth, automation, space progress, probability and prevention of war, and future weapon systems. Results of the experiment illuminate a number of points the contents of the predictions themselves, the bases on which respondents claimed their predictions were made, the spread of expert views, the convergence of views following data feedback, the experts critiques of each others views, and not least of all, the weaknesses of the method and the possible means for improving it.

Descriptors:

• *MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL
• ECONOMICS
• PROBABILITY
• *SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
• DETERMINATION
• RELIABILITY
• POPULATION
• ASTRONAUTICS
• WARFARE
• AUTOMATION
• WEAPON SYSTEMS

Subject Categories:

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE