Accession Number:

AD0607256

Title:

AN APPLICATION OF BAYES THEOREM AS A HYPOTHESIS-SELECTION AID IN A COMPLEX INFORMATION-PROCESSING SYSTEM.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. for 15 Mar 63-31 Jan 64,

Corporate Author:

OHIO STATE UNIV RESEARCH FOUNDATION COLUMBUS LAB OF AVIATION PSYCHOLOGY

Personal Author(s):

• Southard,Jack F.
• Schum,Davis A.
• Briggs,George E.

Report Date:

1964-08-01

Pagination or Media Count:

73.0

Abstract:

The first of a series of experiments investigating the value of automated hypothesis-evaluation aids in multimanmachine systems devoted to assessing or diagnosing threat is described. In the experiment, an eight-man team evaluated threats posed by a hypothetical aggressor. The team made these evaluations on the basis of intelligence information gathered during simulated reconnaissance overflights of aggressors territory. The primary output of the threat-evaluation team was the commanding officers posterior probabilities estimates as to aggressors most likely hostile strategies. During half of the experimental trials, the commander had access to computer-produced posterior probabilities based upon a modification of the Bayes Theorem. The major experimental issue was whether or not these would aid the commander in his hypothesis evaluation. Also investigated was the effect of data-processing load upon system operation. Although some improvement in the posterior probabilities estimates resulted from the commanders having access to the hypothesis-evaluation aid and this improvement became more pronounced as system load increased, the main-order effect of access to the aid was not found to be statistically significant. Author

Descriptors:

• *DECISION MAKING
• *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
• DATA PROCESSING
• THREAT EVALUATION
• MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
• COMPUTERS
• SIMULATION
• PROBABILITY
• MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION
• THEOREMS
• AIR DEFENSE COMMAND
• HUMAN FACTORS ENGINEERING
• PERFORMANCE(HUMAN)
• REAL TIME
• APPLIED PSYCHOLOGY
• SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
• SIMULATION

Subject Categories:

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE