IMPROVING THE RELIABILITY OF ESTIMATES OBTAINED FROM A CONSENSUS OF EXPERTS,
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
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The outcome of an experiment in the use of expert opinions is reported. The experiment involved both the so-called Delphi technique, which seeks to induce opinion convergence through a sequence of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback, and the computation of a consensus based on self-appraised competence ratings.