CONVERGENCE OF EXPERT CONSENSUS THROUGH FEEDBACK,
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
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The research was concerned with methods of inducing a group of experts to refine their estimates of a quantity through a process of successive approximation. A technique evolved for achieving this is called the Delphi method, which involves successive questioning of the individual experts, without face-to-face confrontation, interspersed with controlled feedback of the groups opinions and of reasons offered in support of such opinions. Once a group of experts have come up with their considered final estimates of a quantity, the question arises what formula should be used to combine their responses into a single quantity that may be considered their consensus. This problem was also considered, and an effort was made to get some clues as to whether the median of such responses, or possibly a suitably weighted median, might furnish the most reliable opinion consensus.