METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS TO 1985: TRIAL PROJECTIONS
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
Pagination or Media Count:
This study summarizes the results of two series of demographic projections covering each of the 52 largest Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas SMSA in the United States. These are trial projections, the first steps in a continuing effort to anticipate the probable sizes and characteristics of future metropolitan populations. For each SMSA, the 1960 population was divided into 60 components age, by sex and color on the basis of explicit and detailed assumptions as to rates of birth, death, and migration, the size of each component is estimated at five-year intervals, 1960-1985. The results are compared to national projections prepared by the Bureau of the Census, and to SMSA projections prepared by various local agencies. In 1960, the U.S. Census listed 52 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas whose populations exceeded half a million persons. These SMSAs contained a total of 80 million inhabitants, or 45 per cent of the nations people. Assuming continued migration in the pattern of 1950-1960, the same 52 SMSAs will contain 100 million inhabitants by 1970, with a probable 124 million by 1980.
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